To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. The growth in demand for oil worldwide in 2015 was more than two and a half times greater than in 2019; it plunged precipitously between 2017 and 2019. "Pessimists, by contrast," Roberts writes, "a group whose members include geologists, industry analysts, and a surprising number of oil industry and government officials, believe that a peak may come much sooner -- perhaps as soon as 2005." I generally agree with this article. By June, global oil supply had fallen by some 12 million barrels a day (nearly 13 percent). If we take that route, the “end of oil” will be a commitment to live in peace with one another and the planet. It's a plausible, provocative thesis. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. Hospitals would be crippled as supplies of blood, medications and other vital materials became unattainable. In contrast to an agenda that doubles down on dirty fuels, a wealth of green recovery programs aim to keep fossil fuels in the ground as part of a just transition to a sustainable and equitable economy. Am Ende zeigt sich Roberts einigermaßen zuversichtlich, dass unsere Abhängigkeit von fossilen Energieträgern sich lösen lässt, falls wir schnell und entschlossen handeln. But recall that in the midst of overproduction, both the price of oil and demand growth had been dropping, creating a vicious cycle in which producers had to sell more oil to make the same or even less money. For decades experts and commentators have been proclaiming the end of the oil era is nigh, or that ‘peak oil’ production had been reached. Given how little the United States in particular has done so far to develop successful alternatives, one must hope the optimists are right in saying that we have decades, not months or years, to leave oil behind. Each partners regularly with the members of OPEC and Russia, and they have long shared the goal of burying the smaller frackers, blamed for unfettered (and unstoppable) oversupply. Unable to add item to List. He lives in Washington State. Copyright 2004, The Washington Post Co. All Rights Reserved. As goes the price of oil, so too goes the global economy—and we’re dangerously close to repeating the mistakes that led to the 2008 global financial crisis. But improving the efficiency with which we use oil and other forms of energy is by far the fastest, cheapest and most far-reaching way to begin kicking the carbon habit -- and to buy us time to get real alternatives up and running. Especially odd is how many sources go unnamed even when they offer the blandest of quotes. いつまで続くかわからない原油高の中、見つけたこの本。読む前に題名から想像していたのは、単にいつかは枯渇してしまう石油埋蔵量の話だと思っていました。しかし本書で取り上げている内容は広範囲です。人類の生存に不可欠なエネルギー資源を、太古の昔から現在に続くまでいかにして確保してきたか、そしてそのために大国（とりわけアメリカ）がどういう方策をとってきたか、それがどう戦争に結びついていくのかがわかりやすく書かれています。数あるエピソードの中で「何故アメリカ人が大きい車をもとめるか」についての記述には特に納得しました。. Please email, Ever wonder what hiking trails are the most dangerous, how to throw a vegan barbecue, or whether to use a paper towel or a hand dryer? Smaller companies are declaring bankruptcy, and investors are looking elsewhere for returns. It's the question of our generation: Can we find a sustainable alternative to oil? The boom made the United States the world’s largest oil producer and drove production across the nation, with states including Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas all reaching record highs. Then, the price of oil skyrocketed to almost $150 a barrel, crushing consumers and consumer nations. If the actions – rather than the words – of the oil business’s major players provide the best gauge of how they see the future, then ponder the following. The state of Oklahoma pronounced oil to be “economic waste.” Texas briefly considered mandating production quotas. Most Americans could not get to work, take their kids to school or do any other of the countless tasks cars help us perform. The challenge has … The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into sharp relief the existing fragilities within the oil industry—and then made each of them worse. “The energy industry that emerges from the crisis will be significantly different from the one before,” argued the International Energy Agency in May, before making an aggressive pitch for a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for governments worldwide to reboot their economies with $3 trillion in investments that will move us away from fossil fuels and toward “a more resilient and cleaner-energy future.”. Rather, peak oil is the moment when conventional oil production can no longer be increased, regardless of price. Something went wrong. But what will happen, Roberts asks, when the well starts to run dry? PHOTO BY NACHO CORBELLA Los Angeles is the largest urban oil field in the country. In front of the giant Amazon Falcon oil tanker—which had been docked in the bay for weeks, loaded up with Chevron oil—they unfurled a banner reading, “Oil Is Over! Much of international politics and economics is more clear. The Freedom From Fossil Fuels platform—crafted by Governor Jay Inslee of Washington State and later adopted by Senator Elizabeth Warren—and its plans for securing environmental and climate justice (combined with the Frontlines Climate Justice Executive Action Platform from the progressive think tank Demos) may provide the most comprehensive road map for navigating a managed decline. I read this good book, here in Brazil.This book has many excellent parts.To example, about Hirohito, on page 39, this tells the true:Hirohito was Japan's Hitler and ordered the attack to Pearl Harbor, China and rest of Asia. Sexy? This tanker invasion is only one piece of a dangerous buildup in oil supply that is the result of an unprecedented global glut. Makes analysis of the contemporary energy order accessible. Optimists, such as those in the U.S. Geological Survey and the Energy Information Agency, foresee no peak before 2035. Yet even at that bargain-basement price, there were few takers. Within extreme highs and lows, however, there exists a consistent trend: a fall both in oil prices since 2008 and in the growth of demand for oil since at least 2011. Whether the pandemic marks the end of oil “is up to you.”. This was not surprising, given that the US oil and gas industry was in debt to the tune of $200 billion, largely because of struggling small fracking companies. Subscribe to our magazine by becoming a Sierra Club member today. But just as Washington, through taxes, has forced the price of cigarettes to reflect the health costs that smoking imposed on society, Roberts argues, so could government make the market reflect the social costs of continued reliance on carbon fuels. Imagine what would happen if the world's supply of oil were magically to vanish overnight. To lock in the production cuts that have already been implemented and go beyond them requires keep-it-in-the-ground policies that are based on a “managed decline” in oil production. It did not take me long to realize that Mr. Roberts' book is not what I had expected. Without oil to transport it, food could not get to market -- nor could it be grown and processed by our oil-dependent agricultural system. Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. Wood, for example, gave way to coal during the early 19th century and coal to oil in the mid-20th. Between 2012 and 2017, the oil majors’ profits collapsed. The coronavirus pandemic has gutted demand, resulting in the current surplus, but it merely exacerbated a problem that’s been plaguing the oil industry for years: the incessant overproduction of a product that the world is desperately trying to wean itself from, with growing success. These upheavals are largely the result of the decades of organizing that have cast a dark shadow over the industry and exposed the harms associated with oil. First, we must acknowledge that falling demand and decreasing prices will not be enough to bring about a transition away from oil. These funds can be increased and should include targeted support for efforts in poor countries to keep their oil in the ground. As their fortunes diminished, oil and gas companies and many oil-producing countries tried to drill their way out of financial crisis. Now that the fossil fuels' days finally seem to be numbered, it is time to consider not just what will come next, but also what it will take to get there. Sign up for the Green Life for updates on living well and doing good from, Published in the September/October 2020 issue of, President Biden, Live Up to Your Commitments and Shut Down DAPL, Climate and COVID: A Lethal Combination for the World’s Poor, Clean Energy Will Be Key to a Robust Climate and Public Health Plan, Meet 13 Asian and Asian Diasporic Nature and Environment Writers, ICYMI: Googly Scarecrow, Back-Seat Driver & Don't Put Your Gas in Baggies. Antonia Juhasz is an energy analyst, investigative journalist, and author specializing in oil. The End of the Oil Age. Those prices mean more income, but not enough (in the absence of external financial backing) to prop up smaller fracking companies, whose break-even price per barrel is closer to $50. There are also many ideas for how the United States can disentangle itself from the power of the oil industry. There remain plenty of hydrocarbons, but the world oil market has changed over the past two decades as non-conventionals’ share has grown. But that could be the least of our worries; some of Roberts's most persuasive passages describe an almost inevitable future shaped by global warming, especially as rapidly industrializing countries like China begin to replicate the pollution history of the U.S. True, new suppliers have entered the market over the past 20 years, but the geological fact remains that the largest and cheapest deposits of oil on earth are located beneath the Middle East. Walking readers through the modern energy economy, he suggests that grim prospect may not be as far off as we'd like to think and points out how political unrest could disrupt the world's oil supply with disastrous results. Whether it survives the COVID-19 pandemic rests with public will and government policy: Will countries remain stuck within the oil era or move into a less volatile and more sustainable future? Yet paradoxically, the looming danger of climate change argues for quitting petroleum as soon as possible. In an oil-scarce world, we know there are sacrifices to be made in the pursuit of energy. Posted on February 11, 2021, 11:33. Please email webmaster@sierraclub.org. The “The End of Oil?” article describes weak oil demand in recent years although it should be stated that global oil consumption increased over 5 million barrels/day from 2015 to 2019. If these policies prevail, the industry will rapidly shrink to a fraction of its former stature. A major factor for weak oil demand growth in recent years is the increasing level of … While government bailout programs and subsidies could provide the lifeline the industry needs to stay afloat, such policies will likely throw good money after bad. This book had already gone to press by the time an elite Pentagon planning unit's report appeared in Fortune in February, warning that climate change was a national security threat of the greatest urgency that could cause mega-droughts, mass starvation and even nuclear war by 2020. The “The End of Oil?” article describes weak oil demand in recent years although it should be stated that global oil consumption increased over 5 million barrels/day from 2015 to 2019. Roberts talks to both oil optimists and oil pessimists, delves deep into the economics and politics of oil, considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives, and shows that, although the world energy system has begun its epoch-defining … Something went wrong. Superb exposition of the reasons for the looming necessity for global change in energy usage and politics, what the options are and the major obstacles. An oil and gas pipeline system that was forced to shut down on Friday after a ransomware attack is not expected to be “substantially” restored until the end … The world's supply of oil, he argues, is soon destined to "peak," after which our civilization will somehow have to manage with ever-declining supplies. You wouldn't be reading this newspaper, at least in a print edition, because trucks would be unable to deliver copies to doorsteps and vendors. Top subscription boxes – right to your door, © 1996-2021, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next.” One month later, she joined with author Naomi Klein to launch a Global Green New Deal. They join some 55 oil companies that have announced plans to cut more than $37 billion from their pre-COVID 2020 spending budgets. Also, wealthier, more diversified economies—led by the United States, Canada, and the UK—in which the social and economic costs of shuttering fossil fuel sectors are the least, would act most swiftly while simultaneously assisting poorer countries in their transition. In an astounding prediction, they argue that “geologic consolidation” will now take place, with US oil production shrinking—though not ending—everywhere other than the Permian, with production concentrating in the hands of the biggest players (see “A Long Sunset”). And it’s not just environmental activists calling for the end of oil: New reports out this week show the … The Pandemic and the End of Oil? Global indexes measuring the value of the largest oil companies hit a 50-year low in 2018; of the world’s 100 biggest stocks, only six were oil producers. What Will It Take to Conserve 30 Percent of Lands, Waters by 2030? Scientists, inventors and activists present stern warnings and visionary solutions for the energy of tomorrow. The oil majors (giant global corporations including BP, Chevron, and Shell) are taking billions of dollars in losses while cutting tens of thousands of jobs. Some signs of hope are visible, he believes, especially in Europe, but the stumbling progress of potential alternatives such as hydrogen power or fuel cells is additional cause for concern. A prequel to "The End of Food", this is a most informative book that discusses our dependence on oil; its history, its politics and its economics. The end of oil is already writ large in stock exchanges across Europe. They predict that the country has reached peak oil production and will never return to the record 13 million barrels of oil per day reached in November 2019. Watch Now Checking list. Even as investors were abandoning oil company stocks, a flood of cheap money and easy credit had been keeping the industry afloat. Contrary both to the Bush-Cheney stress on boosting fossil fuel production and environmentalists' calls for a quick shift to a solar-hydrogen economy, it is energy efficiency that could save the day. And her recent cover story for Sierra magazine is “The End of Oil Is Near,” along with another report, “Bailout: Billions of Dollars of Federal COVID-19 Relief Money Flow to the Oil Industry.” These financiers, he argues, “would rather invest in our destruction, in our genocide, than in our lives and our future.” After spending trillions propping up the industry, most major North American and European banks decreased their funding for fossil fuels between 2017 and 2018. In Colorado, oil production in April was just one-sixth of the volume in March. . The oil glut quickly became a tsunami. Oil majors ’ profits collapsed '' the Bush administration 's denials that the of! Of energy., 2008 we find a sustainable alternative to oil?.! 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